Post by Courage on Jun 2, 2005 15:48:55 GMT -5
I'll C&P since the link isn't working properly:
A former Apollo astronaut is calling on Congress to authorize a space mission to monitor an asteroid that has a narrow chance of hitting Earth in 2035 or 2036.
Astronaut Russell Schweickart, who piloted the lunar module during the 1969 Apollo 9 mission, unveiled his proposal Friday at the International Space Development Conference in Arlington, Virginia.
The proposal calls for a $300 million mission to land a transponder on the asteroid, a 1,050-foot-wide body known as 2004 MN4. Signals from the transponder would be used to pinpoint the asteroid's trajectory and determine whether it will strike Earth or simply zoom past.
To date, scientists at NASA's Near Earth Object program have maintained that the likelihood of a strike is miniscule. In 2035, the probability is just 1 in 23,000, according to their calculations. In 2036, that probability rises to a mere 1 in 14,000.
However, those numbers could change after 2004 MN4 passes between Earth and the moon in 2029. At that point, astronomers will have a chance to make extensive observations of the asteroid and will be able to calculate the risk more precisely -- for better or for worse.
Finding out in 2029 that the chances of an impact were actually on the order of 1 in 10 or worse would be disastrous because it would be too late to launch a mission to deflect the asteroid, argues Schweickart.
Instead, the government should launch a tracking mission as soon as possible as an "insurance policy," he said in a phone interview Tuesday.
"This asteroid is exceptional in terms of the accuracy of the data that we need to have on it," he said. "Normal tracking will not do that job."
Schweickart himself believes that an impact is unlikely. However, in his report, he provides a rough estimate of the potential damages, noting that a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean could create a tsunami twice the size of the recent Indian Ocean tsunami.
Other experts have estimated that an impact of an asteroid the size of 2004 MN4 would release 870 megatons of energy, or dozens of times greater than an extremely violent volcano.
In his proposal, Schweickart calls on Congress to appoint a government agency to make decisions on when and how to deflect an asteroid or comet, should one be on a collision course with Earth.
"Nobody at the moment is dealing with the issue of the deflection consideration," said Schweickart. "It isn't assigned anywhere. It's not assigned to NASA -- they've been searching for them. It's that additional step that I've been calling for."
Representatives for NASA's Near Earth Object program were not immediately available to comment.
For now, most scientists say they aren't losing sleep over the possibility of an impact. Rather, they're gearing up for a good show when the asteroid passes within 23,000 miles of Earth's surface -- closer than the distance between the Earth and the moon -- in 2029.
"Certainly, asteroids have made close encounters in the past and some have hit Earth. But in recent history, this is probably the biggest, closest asteroid that we know about," said Bill Bottke, a space studies scientist at the Southwest Research Institute.
Though Bottke hadn't yet reviewed Schweickart's proposal Tuesday, he said the idea shouldn't be dismissed without further discussion in the scientific community.
"In the end, if (Schweickart) has made a good case, it comes down to a question of how much money should you spend on life insurance?"
A former Apollo astronaut is calling on Congress to authorize a space mission to monitor an asteroid that has a narrow chance of hitting Earth in 2035 or 2036.
Astronaut Russell Schweickart, who piloted the lunar module during the 1969 Apollo 9 mission, unveiled his proposal Friday at the International Space Development Conference in Arlington, Virginia.
The proposal calls for a $300 million mission to land a transponder on the asteroid, a 1,050-foot-wide body known as 2004 MN4. Signals from the transponder would be used to pinpoint the asteroid's trajectory and determine whether it will strike Earth or simply zoom past.
To date, scientists at NASA's Near Earth Object program have maintained that the likelihood of a strike is miniscule. In 2035, the probability is just 1 in 23,000, according to their calculations. In 2036, that probability rises to a mere 1 in 14,000.
However, those numbers could change after 2004 MN4 passes between Earth and the moon in 2029. At that point, astronomers will have a chance to make extensive observations of the asteroid and will be able to calculate the risk more precisely -- for better or for worse.
Finding out in 2029 that the chances of an impact were actually on the order of 1 in 10 or worse would be disastrous because it would be too late to launch a mission to deflect the asteroid, argues Schweickart.
Instead, the government should launch a tracking mission as soon as possible as an "insurance policy," he said in a phone interview Tuesday.
"This asteroid is exceptional in terms of the accuracy of the data that we need to have on it," he said. "Normal tracking will not do that job."
Schweickart himself believes that an impact is unlikely. However, in his report, he provides a rough estimate of the potential damages, noting that a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean could create a tsunami twice the size of the recent Indian Ocean tsunami.
Other experts have estimated that an impact of an asteroid the size of 2004 MN4 would release 870 megatons of energy, or dozens of times greater than an extremely violent volcano.
In his proposal, Schweickart calls on Congress to appoint a government agency to make decisions on when and how to deflect an asteroid or comet, should one be on a collision course with Earth.
"Nobody at the moment is dealing with the issue of the deflection consideration," said Schweickart. "It isn't assigned anywhere. It's not assigned to NASA -- they've been searching for them. It's that additional step that I've been calling for."
Representatives for NASA's Near Earth Object program were not immediately available to comment.
For now, most scientists say they aren't losing sleep over the possibility of an impact. Rather, they're gearing up for a good show when the asteroid passes within 23,000 miles of Earth's surface -- closer than the distance between the Earth and the moon -- in 2029.
"Certainly, asteroids have made close encounters in the past and some have hit Earth. But in recent history, this is probably the biggest, closest asteroid that we know about," said Bill Bottke, a space studies scientist at the Southwest Research Institute.
Though Bottke hadn't yet reviewed Schweickart's proposal Tuesday, he said the idea shouldn't be dismissed without further discussion in the scientific community.
"In the end, if (Schweickart) has made a good case, it comes down to a question of how much money should you spend on life insurance?"